What if Josh Rosen was drafted by the Bills

It may be hard to believe, but Josh Rosen was nearly drafted by the Bills with the 7th pick of the 2018 draft. Instead Buffalo took Josh Allen. We know how well that has turned out for him. Rosen was taken by the Cardinals with the 10th pick and it was a disaster for him. But what if the Bills took Josh Rosen and Allen wound up on the Cardinals? How would the NFL be different?

Disclaimer: Allen is better than Rosen. No argument there. But Rosen never got a chance to succeed anywhere and that's what this is looking at.

2018 off-season/ season

On draft day, the Bills decide to take Josh Rosen. The Cardinals, seeing that Rosen isn't available, take Josh Allen.

The rest of the off-season stays the same (boring) and the season will also pretty much stay the same. Remember, one player won't drastically change a team, especially when the rest of the roster is bad. Arizona's best offensive weapons were David "Overpaid" Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, who was 35 years old and in the twilight of his career. I’m not sure how much even Allen could do with that.

Sean McDermott starts to build an offensive scheme around Rosen as he watches him play. Rosen has a coaching staff that believes in him and is able to be developed instead of being put in situations to fail. The record doesn't change, but that is simply because the Bills roster stinks.

2019 off season

The Cardinals still get the first overall pick and still hire Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury again decides he wants Kyler Murray and takes him with the first pick. Josh Allen is traded to the Dolphins for a second and a fourth round pick. Now that Allen is on the Dolphins, we won't focus on the Cardinals any more.

The rest of the draft stays the same as well. Remember, records don't change yet and the Dolphins owner still wants Tua (not knowing what lies ahead)

For the rest of the offseason, the Dolphins do nothing. The Bills still sign Cole Beasley, but don't sign Frank Gore because he is old and they don't want a power runner in the Rosen offense. Gore instead signs with the Texans because Bill O'Brien wants to develop a run game.

2019 season

Rosen has an impressive sophomore year and throws for 3,500 yards 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Bills also go to the playoffs but still lose to the Texans. The Texans are the better team, but the Bills can sleep easy knowing they have their QB of the future.

This was the year the Dolphins "Tanked for Tua" but this time coach Brian Flores trusts Allen and starts him the entire season. He also convinces GM Chris Grier to keep Mikah Fitzpatrick. Their reward is going 7-9 and showing promise. Unlike in real life, this version of the Dolphins beats Washington in Week 6, which actually gives Washington the No. 1 overall pick. But I'll get to that later. Allen finishes the year with 4,000 yards, 23 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions.

2020 offseason

Stefon Diggs is still traded to Buffalo prior to the draft.

Now let's talk about the draft. Washington gets the first overall pick, because the Dolphins’ victory over them makes their record fall to 2-14, and they have a tiebreaker over the Bengals.

Here is the new draft order:

Washington

Bengals

Lions

Giants

Chargers

Panthers

Cardinals

Jaguars

Jets

Browns

Dolphins

Washington picks Joe Burrow, feeling that they can't pass up on a franchise quarterback. They cut their losses on 2019 first round pick Dwayne Haskins and trade him to the Jaguars for a 2020 second round pick and a 2020 fifth round pick. The Bengals decide to take Chase Young to build up their defense. With the fifth pick, the Chargers now take Tua instead of Justin Herbert. This begs the question where does Herbert go? In this scenario, Herbert is drafted by the Packers, because they still wanted to take a first round quarterback.

He is available for Green Bay because the Dolphins don't need a quarterback – they have Allen. Instead, they select CeeDee Lamb. Cowboys fans don't be sad because you get Jalen Reagor. Well, OK, you can be a little sad. The Vikings still get Justin Jefferson and the Eagles pick Jordan Love instead of Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts is picked by the Chiefs to sit behind Patrick Mahomes as his backup.

Ok back to the main teams. The Bills select Trevon Diggs so he can play with his brother, while the Dolphins select Jonathan Taylor.

2020 season

The Bills and Dolphins are legitimate playoff contenders. With Diggs, Beasley and Knox, Rosen throws for over 4,100 yards with 31 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. If this seems high, these are Derek Carr's actual numbers from that season, and I don’t think it is much of a stretch to say that Rosen could have reached that level as a pro. The Bills finish with a 13-3 record. The Dolphins, meanwhile, finish 10-6 with Allen throwing for 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The fortunate thing is that we get to see them in the playoffs.

It's Sunday Night postseason football with the Dolphins playing in Buffalo. Allen isn't able to bring the Dolphins to victory in the snow because he isn't used to playing in the cold. This doesn't mean I think Rosen is better than Allen, I like that Buffalo team (mainly the defense) more than I like that Dolphins team. The Bills go on to lose to the Chiefs in the AFC championship game but the future seems bright.

2021 offseason/season

Instead of signing Will Fuller, the Dolphins decide to make a bigger splash for a better receiver. They think they have a deal with Antonio Brown ... before he is lured back by Tom Brady at the last minute. The Dolphins will instead trade their first round pick to the Saints for Michael Thomas. The Dolphins also sign Casey Hayward, Kyle Fuller and Josh Norman

Buffalo, meanwhile, signs, Patrick Peterson, Ryan Kerrigan, Rasul Douglas and Malik Jackson because they want to build the defense up. Many fans fear that the team overachieved last year but they are hopeful for the next season.

Rosen falls off a bit but throws for 3,500 yards, 30 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The Bills don't win the division. Instead, the AFC East goes to the Dolphins, with Allen throwing for 5,000 yards, 42 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. They go 13-4, with the revamped offense and their dominant defense. They get a first round bye, while the Bills have to go Tennessee to play the Titans because they are the 6 seed.

Playoffs

The Titans are destroyed! The Bills come in and demolish them with Diggs catching 3 touchdowns and his brother getting 2 interceptions (while still getting burned in coverage). Rosen doesn’t have to do much because the Titans defense is bad.

Now the Bills play the Dolphins and this time instead of it being freezing cold, it's 100 degrees and extremely humid. This game will be known as the “Gone in 60 seconds.’

The first quarter is as exciting as watching paint dry. Both teams punt twice and we even get a fan run on the field and dance until he is leveled by Stefon Diggs. Then we get to the second quarter where the Bills score on a rushing touchdown from Rosen. The Dolphins see what the Bills did and say “hey that looks like fun” and score on a Taylor touchdown run. Then the teams trade field goals until the fourth quarter because it is way too hot for their to be consistent scoring. Then the Bills break through. Beasly catches a touchdown, and Allen throws an interception to Norman which sets up a field goal to have the Bills up 10 with a minute left.

This is when Lamb returns the kickoff for a touchdown. The Dolphins decide to go for 2 and get it with a Taylor run. The Dolphins don't recover the onside kick, but luckily they have 3 timeouts. The Bills run it 3 times and the Dolphins get the ball back with 45 seconds left on their own 10 yard line. After 4 plays that gain 20 yards, there are only 10 seconds left. On the last play of the game Allen passes it to Lamb who laterals it to Devante Parker who laterals it to someone named Kenyan Drake, who gets around the Bills defense and scores a touchdown to give the Dolphins the win.

The Dolphins then spend too much time celebrating and lose in the AFC championship game.

The what if ends there. The main premise of this simulation was to show what happens when a player is given an opportunity. Given a legitimate chance, Rosen became a Derek Carr/ Kirk Cousins type of quarterback.

In the NFL, opportunities are hard to come by. This alternative universe is no different. Just ask Jalen Hurts? Instead of getting the starting job in Philly and playing in a Super Bowl, in this world he is sitting on the bench as Patrick Mahomes' backup. He is never able to get the opportunity to start for a team and he thinks to himself, “What if I was drafted anywhere else?”

And with that I will leave you with this quote “Ability is nothing without opportunity.”(Napoleon Bonaparte).