Welcome to March

It's called March Madness for a reason. You have to expect the unexpected in the NCAA Tournament, or it’s really dull. But the question is, what unexpected things should you expect?

Fortunately for you, I have some upsets to consider when filling out your brackets. Just to warn you, you may or may not want to listen to my advice. I may be trying to trick you so I can win my brackets. But I would never do that… OR WOULD I!? Here are some upsets you should pick or at least look at in the round of 64.

No. 11 Duquense Over No. 6 BYU

Am I picking this matchup solely because I watched Duquesne play at the A-10 tournament? Possibly!  

But something to remember is that Duquesne is ranked 29th in efficiency and 250th in tempo and is known for its strong defense and slow pace, which often helps it win in close games. Duquesne's defense will challenge the Cougars, who aim for quick play and high points. The Dukes should slow them down and use their star guards for crucial late-game points, as BYU lacks a late-game scoring guard that can score when things get desperate.

Also, the last time I could have picked an  A-10 team to upset a higher seed, I didn’t and paid the price. I am not making that mistake again. 

No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Gonzaga 

Gonzaga can never win in March Madness. I know you all know that. This year, it looked like they wouldn’t even make the tournament for a while, but they rebounded and earned a five seed in the tournament. Their reward for that is going up against the 30-3 McNeese Cowboys. 

This game is expected to be a thrilling first-round NCAA Tournament matchup due to both teams’ fast-break style and potential for quick buckets and momentum changes. It’s why I love McNeese because the Cowboys have the eighth-highest 3-point percentage in the NCAA this season, making 38.83 percent of their deep shots. They aim for good, open shots and have the NCAA's third-best turnover margin at plus-6.7 per game. They are efficient in converting deep shots and turnovers. So I am 100% picking them to beat Gonzaga.

No. 13 Samford over No. 4  Kansas 

One word… INJURIES. As of the writing of this blog post, it is uncertain how healthy guys like Hunter Dickenson will be. He says he wants to play, but if he is less than 50%, Kansas will be in serious trouble with the other injuries they have. In fact I just found out that Kansas guard Kevin McCullar Jr. won’t play in the NCAA tournament due to a knee injury. This is coming from a top-secret source I can’t reveal. OK, Bill Self said it at a press conference. But still. Kansas is too hurt too make a deep run. With Samford ranking fifth in the nation in scoring offense and in the top 10 in bench points, turnovers, field goal, and three-point percentage, a banged-up Kansas team is hard to pick in that scenario.  

No. 16 Grambling State or Montana State over No. 1 Purdue

Just kidding … but if this happens, I won’t be shocked.

No. 13 Charleston over No. 4 Alabama 

CAA pride, baby! Okay, but besides that, why should you pick Alabama to lose? After all my research, my main reason is that Charleston has an explosive offense with an average of 80.5 points per game. They are also dangerous around the perimeter, with 10.5 made 3-pointers per game and a 34.5 percent shooting rate from long range. They have six players averaging at least 8.0 points per game, with Reyne Smith being the most dangerous shooter. 

Plus, Alabama beat Maryland last year, so I’m spiteful since that’s my home state. Also Charleston needs to make a run so the CAA can be a two-bid lead next year. Otherwise Elon will be the only league team in the 2025 tournament.