Things I learned with March Madness

Yes I know it’s been a while since the last post. The reason for that is that I got busy with school and college visits, plus I didn't want anyone cheating off my March Madness picks. I did you all a favor with that last part since this wasn’t the greatest year for my predictions anyway. This post will be five things I learned about March Madness this year.

1: Simulations can lie

I did a simulation for the first game of the tournament: Maryland vs. West Virginia. It predicted a Maryland loss which would have made my family of Terrapin grads and fans extremely unhappy. All I can say is this... COUNTRY WOES, YOU'RE GOING HOME. My simulation was wrong, which proves that even technology can't predict a perfect bracket. Fortunately I went against my simulation because #MarylandPride. Unfortunately my instincts didn’t serve me as well elsewhere.

2: Don't pick the top overall seed

The last No. 1 overall seed to win the tournament was in 2013 which was when Louisville won it all. The most recent number one seeds have been as followed:

(2023)Alabama; Sweet Sixteen lost to San Diego State

(2022)Gonzaga: Sweet Sixteen lost to Arkansas

(2021)Gonzaga: Championship lost to Baylor (eventual champions and I won my family pool because of that)

(2019) Duke: Elite Eight lost to Michigan State

(2018) Virginia: First No. 1 seed to lose to a sixteen seed (UMBC)

(2017) Villanova: Second Round lost to Wisconsin

(2016) Kansas: Elite Eight lost to Villanova (eventual champions)

(2015) Kentucky: Final Four lost to Wisconsin (Kentucky was undefeated until that game)

(2014) Florida: Final Four lost to UConn (eventual champions)

2a: Especially if that team’s best player is mentioned regarding his potential role in a MURDER CASE for a crime a former teammate is being accused of.

This one is self explanatory

3: Don't Pick Gonzaga if they have to go through UCLA

In the two of the past three tournaments, Gonzaga has had to play UCLA. The good news is the Bulldogs won both games. The bad news is that they looked completely out of gas the next game.

Two years ago, after beating UCLA on Jalen Suggs buzzer beater in the Final Four, they played Baylor in the championship. The Bears controlled that game from the opening tip and Gonzaga brought no energy. This year after beating UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen they played UConn. Much like in the championship game, Gonzaga brought no energy and UConn dominated from the opening tip. So if Gonzaga ever has to play against UCLA again, expect them to win and then get dominated the next game.

4: Don't ever trust Purdue

This one is also self explanatory

5: Look closer at the analytics

As someone who always looks at the analytics, I am mad at myself for not trusting this. UConn was the analytical darlings this year. All the advanced metrics said the Huskies had a chance to win the tournament. All I saw was a No. 4 seed and didn’t pay close enough attention to the other numbers. I just looked at the storylines and picked Gonzaga because I figured that the narrative would be that this was finally the year Gonzaga would win, the year nobody expected them to. But the best stories don’t win — the best teams do. And the advanced math knew more than the story writers did this time around.